Betting Trends and Expert Picks for Padres vs Pirates Sunday, May 4, 2025

San Diego Padres

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Pittsburgh Pirates

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to host the San Diego Padres on May 4, 2025, both teams are looking to capitalize on their recent performances. The Pirates enter this matchup struggling with a record of 12-22, while the Padres sit comfortably at 21-11, reflecting their strong season. In their last game on May 3, the Pirates fell to the Padres by a narrow score of 2-1, highlighting the competitive nature of this series.

The Pirates are projected to start Andrew Heaney, a left-handed pitcher with a solid ERA of 2.50 this season, although his underlying metrics suggest he may have been somewhat fortunate. Heaney has shown flashes of brilliance, but his recent outing on April 29 was lackluster, allowing 4 earned runs in just 5 innings. On the other side, San Diego will counter with Stephen Kolek, whose projections indicate struggles of his own, including an expected poor performance in terms of innings pitched and earned runs allowed.

Offensively, the Pirates rank a dismal 25th in MLB, with a particularly weak 27th in team batting average and 28th in home runs. In contrast, the Padres boast a more balanced offense, ranking 13th overall and 3rd in batting average, suggesting they have the upper hand in this matchup. Despite the Pirates’ low rankings, they do excel in stolen bases, which they will need to leverage against a Padres team that ranks 10th in that category.

With the Game Total set at a high 9.0 runs, the Pirates’ implied team total of 4.55 runs indicates that oddsmakers see potential for scoring, even against a solid Padres bullpen ranked 2nd in MLB. This matchup may hinge on whether Heaney can outperform his projections and provide a stabilizing force for the Pirates as they look to turn their season around.

San Diego Padres Insights

• San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)
  Given the 1.6 deviation between Stephen Kolek’s 5.21 ERA and his 3.61 FIP, it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball since the start of last season and should see positive regression in the future.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Manny Machado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Manny Machado has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.9-mph to 98.7-mph over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-heavy lineup in today’s games is the San Diego Padres with a 18.1% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Andrew Heaney – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Over his previous 3 GS, Andrew Heaney has seen a sizeable decline in his fastball spin rate: from 2359 rpm over the whole season to 2300 rpm in recent games.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Enmanuel Valdez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  San Diego’s #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Enmanuel Valdez, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Pittsburgh’s 89.5-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in Major League Baseball: #8 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.00 Units / 31% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-160/+125)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 23 games (+5.57 Units / 20% ROI)
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Tommy Pham has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+12.30 Units / 41% ROI)