Guardians vs Blue Jays Game Highlights – Friday, May 2, 2025

Cleveland Guardians

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Toronto Blue Jays

On May 2, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Cleveland Guardians at Rogers Centre in a matchup that carries significant implications as both teams look to solidify their standings. The Blue Jays enter this game with a record of 15-16, struggling to find their rhythm this season, while the Guardians, boasting a 18-13 record, have been performing well and currently sit in a better position. Both teams are looking to bounce back after each secured wins in their last games—Toronto won 4-2, and Cleveland triumphed 4-3.

The projected starting pitchers add another layer of intrigue to this matchup. Chris Bassitt is set to take the mound for the Blue Jays. Although his overall season performance has been solid with a 2.62 ERA, he has been inconsistent, as evidenced by his last start where he allowed four earned runs over six innings. His advanced stats suggest he is above average, ranked as the 85th best starting pitcher in MLB, but he faces a challenge against a Guardians offense that ranks 22nd overall.

On the other hand, Logan Allen heads to the mound for the Guardians. Despite his struggles, ranked among the worst pitchers, he is projected to pitch 5.3 innings but comes off a brutal outing where he allowed seven earned runs in just four innings. This matchup favors the Blue Jays if Bassitt can perform closer to his projections, especially considering his favorable matchup against a low-strikeout Cleveland offense.

With the Blue Jays listed as favorites with a moneyline of -165 and an implied team total of 4.74 runs, they will look to capitalize on their home advantage while hoping Bassitt can deliver a more consistent performance. This opening game of the series could be pivotal in setting the tone for the matchups to come.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Logan Allen – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Logan Allen’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.3 mph this year (89.9 mph) below where it was last season (91.2 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Steven Kwan – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Steven Kwan has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.5-mph dropping to 83.4-mph over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Bo Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Bo Naylor hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-185)
  Chris Bassitt is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.1% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #2 HR venue in the league today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Extreme flyball batters like Anthony Santander generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Logan Allen.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 18.3% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-170)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games at home (+5.00 Units / 32% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games (+6.15 Units / 19% ROI)
• Andres Gimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+100/-130)
  Andres Gimenez has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.65 Units / 41% ROI)