Get the Injury Report for Twins vs Guardians – Tuesday April 29th, 2025

Minnesota Twins

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Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians host the Minnesota Twins on April 29, 2025, they find themselves in contrasting positions within the American League Central. The Guardians sit at 15-13, enjoying an above-average season, while the Twins are struggling at 13-16, reflecting a disappointing start. In their last encounter, the Twins dominated the Guardians, winning 11-1, a result that may linger in the minds of both teams as they meet again.

Cleveland is projected to start Tanner Bibee, who has had an inconsistent season with a 2-2 record and an ERA of 5.19. Despite these numbers, advanced metrics rank Bibee as the 79th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he’s slightly above average. His last outing on April 22 saw him pitch well, going 6 innings with only 2 earned runs. However, his projections suggest he may allow an average of 2.6 earned runs today, alongside a concerning 5.5 hits.

On the other side, Chris Paddack will take the mound for Minnesota. Paddack is having a rough season with an 0-3 record and a troubling ERA of 6.45. Yet, his xFIP of 4.88 indicates he might be due for a turnaround, as the projections suggest he could allow an average of 2.7 earned runs today.

Offensively, the Guardians rank 19th in MLB, but their best hitter has been performing well recently, boasting a .391 batting average over the past week. Meanwhile, the Twins’ offense ranks 22nd, struggling particularly with home runs, sitting at 28th in that category.

With the Guardians’ strong bullpen ranked 4th in MLB, they may have the edge in this matchup. Betting markets appear to agree, setting the Guardians’ moneyline at -130, suggesting a close game ahead.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
  In his last outing, Chris Paddack gave up a monstrous 9 earned runs.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Typically, batters like Byron Buxton who hit a lot of flyballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Tanner Bibee.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Minnesota’s 88.7-mph average exit velocity this year is among the worst in the majors: #24 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Cleveland Guardians – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)
  Tanner Bibee is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.5% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #21 HR venue among all parks today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Gabriel Arias – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Gabriel Arias is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-145)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 27 games (+3.90 Units / 12% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-130)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 17 games (+6.00 Units / 29% ROI)
• Brooks Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+175/-230)
  Brooks Lee has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.00 Units / 33% ROI)