Betting Tips and Odds for Mets vs Nationals – Saturday April 26th, 2025

New York Mets

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Washington Nationals

The New York Mets will look to continue their strong season as they face the Washington Nationals on April 26, 2025, at Nationals Park. The Mets come into this matchup with a record of 18-8, showcasing their dominance in the National League East, while the Nationals sit at 12-14, struggling to find their footing this year. In their last game, the Mets defeated the Nationals, further solidifying their position as a playoff contender.

On the mound, the Nationals are projected to start Brad Lord, who has had a rough start to the season with a 0-2 record and an ERA of 4.73. His advanced metrics suggest he may have been lucky thus far, with a higher xERA of 6.64. Lord is projected to pitch just 4.9 innings today, allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs, which could be a challenge against a potent Mets lineup.

The Mets will counter with Clay Holmes, who has been effective this season, sporting a 2-1 record and a solid 3.16 ERA. Holmes ranks as the 19th best starting pitcher in MLB and is projected to pitch 5.7 innings while allowing just 2.3 earned runs. His high strikeout rate could be beneficial against a Nationals offense that ranks 21st overall and has shown difficulty generating runs consistently.

Despite the Nationals’ struggles, they do rank 9th in team stolen bases, providing some hope for their offense. However, with the Mets’ overall better performance and strong pitching matchup, New York is favored to win, boasting a high implied team total of 5.31 runs for today’s game. As both teams look to establish their identities in this early season matchup, the Nationals will need a strong showing to turn their season around.

New York Mets Insights

• Clay Holmes – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Because groundball pitchers hold a notable advantage over groundball bats, Clay Holmes and his 57.5% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a good position in today’s matchup going up against 6 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Mark Vientos has a ton of pop (91st percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (27.2% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Brad Lord doesn’t generate many whiffs (24th percentile K%) — great news for Vientos.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Brandon Nimmo has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the league’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Brad Lord – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+135/-175)
  When it comes to his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Bradley Lord in the 20th percentile among all starting pitchers in the majors.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  James Wood has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 100.4-mph average to last year’s 96.6-mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Washington’s 7.6° launch angle (an advanced stat to study the ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the lowest in the league this year: #30 overall.
  Explain: A low launch angle generally means the hitter struggles to lift the ball into the air, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+8.40 Units / 71% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.30 Units / 26% ROI)
• Luisangel Acuna – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Luisangel Acuna has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 62% ROI)