Odds and Betting Tips for Rockies vs Royals – 4/22/2025

Colorado Rockies

@

Kansas City Royals

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to face the Colorado Rockies on April 22, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling in the early stages of the season. The Royals sit at 9-14, while the Rockies are even worse at 4-17. Both teams are looking to turn their fortunes around after mixed results in their last outings; the Royals edged out a narrow 4-3 victory, while the Rockies managed a 3-1 win, showcasing some resilience.

On the mound, the Royals will send Kris Bubic to the hill, who has been impressive this season with a 2-1 record and a stellar 1.88 ERA, ranking him as the 58th best starting pitcher in MLB, according to the leading MLB projection system. Bubic’s high strikeout rate of 26.2% could be a key factor against a Rockies lineup that leads the league in strikeouts. However, Bubic’s projected performance shows he might allow 2.1 earned runs and 4.8 hits, which could lead to some challenges.

Ryan Feltner, starting for the Rockies, has had a rough go this season with a 0-1 record and a 4.82 ERA. His last outing was particularly troubling, as he allowed 5 earned runs over just 3 innings. The projections suggest he may continue to struggle, allowing 3.1 earned runs and 5.8 hits today.

Offensively, the Royals rank 29th in MLB, struggling to generate runs, while the Rockies are slightly better at 25th. With the Royals projected to score 4.85 runs today against the Rockies’ 3.15, they appear to have the upper hand. As the game total sits at an average 8.0 runs, bettors may find value in the Royals as solid favorites with a moneyline of -245.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Ryan Feltner – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Because flyball batters hold a notable edge over groundball pitchers, Ryan Feltner and his 42.2% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a tough spot today matching up with 1 opposing GB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Michael Toglia – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Michael Toglia has struggled with his Barrel%; his 17.3% rate last year has fallen off to 6.4% this season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Ryan McMahon has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 4th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Kris Bubic – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  The Colorado Rockies have 7 bats in the projected lineup that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kris Bubic in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Kyle Isbel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Isbel has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• It may be wise to expect improved performance for the Kansas City Royals offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the unluckiest offense in the majors this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.25 Units / 26% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 18 games (+4.35 Units / 22% ROI)
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)
  Ryan McMahon has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+6.30 Units / 67% ROI)