Get the Astros vs Cardinals Injury Report – Tuesday, April 15, 2025

Houston Astros

@

St. Louis Cardinals

On April 15, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Houston Astros at Busch Stadium for the second game of their interleague series. The Cardinals currently sit at 8-8, while the Astros are struggling with a 7-9 record. After yesterday’s matchup, where the Cardinals fell short, this game carries an added urgency for both teams as they look to turn their seasons around.

Erick Fedde, projected to start for the Cardinals, has had an average start to the season with a 1-1 record and a 4.20 ERA. However, his 5.94 xFIP indicates that he may have been fortunate in his performances thus far, suggesting potential struggles ahead. Fedde’s projections for today include an average of 5.8 innings pitched and allowing 2.5 earned runs, but his ability to limit hits and walks is concerning, with projections of 5.2 hits and 1.6 walks allowed.

On the other side, Hunter Brown will take the mound for the Astros. Brown boasts a 1-1 record with a stellar 2.00 ERA and ranks 26th among MLB starters. His projections are promising, expecting him to pitch 5.9 innings while allowing only 2.2 earned runs. However, like Fedde, he also struggles with hits allowed, projected at 5.0, and walks at 2.0.

Offensively, the Cardinals rank 4th in MLB, showcasing their capability to score, especially with their top hitter performing well recently with a .417 batting average. In contrast, the Astros’ offense, ranked 23rd, has struggled significantly this season, which could play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of this game. Betting markets suggest a close contest, with the Cardinals at +110 and the Astros at -130, reflecting the competitive nature of this matchup.

Houston Astros Insights

• Hunter Brown – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Hunter Brown’s curveball usage has risen by 5.6% from last year to this one (12.7% to 18.3%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Jose Altuve’s average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 86.5-mph mark last year has dropped off to 82.7-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 3rd-least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Houston Astros with a 19.9% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Erick Fedde – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  Erick Fedde’s 2065-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season ranks in the 12th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Hitters such as Nolan Gorman with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Hunter Brown who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals’ bullpen projects as the 10th-worst among all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+2.45 Units / 45% ROI)
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+700/-1600)
  Isaac Paredes has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+15.40 Units / 385% ROI)