Explore the Top Player Prop Picks for Reds vs Brewers – April 5th, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

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Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to host the Cincinnati Reds on April 5, 2025, both teams find themselves in differing positions early in the season. The Brewers, currently at .500 with a record of 4-4, are coming off a tightly contested 3-2 victory against the Reds, who sit at 2-6 and are struggling to find their rhythm. This matchup marks the third game of the series, and the Brewers will look to capitalize on their recent success.

On the mound, Milwaukee is projected to start Elvin Rodriguez, who has had a rocky start this season with an ERA of 9.00 after just one appearance. Rodriguez’s advanced metrics suggest he may have been a bit unlucky, but he still faces a tough challenge against a Reds lineup that has struggled to generate offense. Meanwhile, Cincinnati counters with Brady Singer, who boasts a stellar 0.00 ERA in his first start of the year, after a strong outing where he pitched 7 innings with no earned runs.

The Brewers’ offense ranks as the 43rd best in MLB, reflecting their struggles at the plate, particularly in hitting for power, where they sit at 37th in home runs. In contrast, the Reds also rank poorly, holding the 57th spot in offensive efficiency. With both teams looking for offensive breakthroughs, this game could turn into a battle of the bullpens, where the Brewers’ bullpen ranks 17th compared to the Reds’ 20th.

Betting markets are indicating a tight contest, with the Brewers currently favored at -125. The Brewers project to score around 4.14 runs, while the Reds are expected to tally about 3.86 runs. This matchup presents an opportunity for bettors to consider the Brewers overcoming the odds given their better recent form and the potential for Rodriguez to improve from his previous start.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Brady Singer has added a cutter to his repertoire this year and has utilized it 17.4% of the time.
  Explain: Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Elly De La Cruz has a ton of pop (85th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (30.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Elvin Rodriguez struggles to strike batters out (10th percentile K%) — great news for De La Cruz.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Cincinnati Reds bats jointly rank near the bottom of Major League Baseball since the start of last season ( worst) as it relates to their 87.7-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-120)
  The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense projects as the best among all the teams on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+460/-750)
  Jackson Chourio’s speed has decreased this season. His 29.71 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 28.72 ft/sec now.
  Explain: Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can’t beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Jackson Chourio hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 27 games at home (+5.80 Units / 17% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 86 of their last 148 games (+15.60 Units / 9% ROI)
• Joseph Ortiz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-170/+130)
  Joseph Ortiz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.75 Units / 62% ROI)