Check the Betting Guide and Odds for Reds vs Brewers – Friday April 4th, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

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Milwaukee Brewers

On April 4, 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the Cincinnati Reds at American Family Field for the second game of their series. Both teams are struggling early in the season, with the Brewers holding a record of 3-4 and the Reds at 2-5. In their last outing on April 3, the Brewers managed a narrow 1-0 victory, while the Reds suffered a similarly close loss by the same scoreline.

The Brewers are projected to start Tyler Alexander, who, despite being ranked as the 263rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, has shown some promise. In his last appearance, he pitched well out of the bullpen, going 5 innings with no earned runs, 6 strikeouts, and only 4 hits allowed. However, he has yet to start a game this season, and his ERA of 5.40 raises concerns about his consistency. The projections suggest that Alexander may perform better moving forward, despite his high walk rate of 16.7%.

On the other side, the Reds will counter with Nick Martinez, an average right-handed pitcher with a 6.00 ERA this season. He has started one game, which did not go well, allowing 4 earned runs in 6 innings. Both pitchers project to allow a similar number of earned runs today, but their recent performances present a noticeable disparity, with Alexander potentially having the edge due to the Reds’ low-walk offense, which ranks as the 2nd least patient in MLB.

Offensively, both teams are struggling, with the Brewers ranking 33rd and the Reds 43rd in overall offensive production this season. Milwaukee’s best hitter has a solid .321 average, but the overall lineup has underperformed. Cincinnati’s top performer is also struggling to maintain consistent production, despite a respectable .286 average.

With betting odds favoring the Brewers at -130, they may be a slightly better bet, considering the matchup dynamics and Alexander’s potential to capitalize on the Reds’ offensive deficiencies. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating a potentially close contest as both teams vie to gain momentum early in the season.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – Moneyline (+110)
  Among every team on the slate today, the 3rd-worst infield defense belongs to the Cincinnati Reds.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Austin Wynns – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-110/-120)
  Austin Wynns’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 11th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  The Cincinnati Reds bullpen grades out as the 8th-worst in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Tyler Alexander – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Tyler Alexander to be limited in this game, projecting a maximum of 80 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-240/+180)
  Brice Turang is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Jackson Chourio hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 34 of their last 59 games (+6.90 Units / 10% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 89 of their last 156 games (+12.70 Units / 7% ROI)
• TJ Friedl – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+135/-170)
  TJ Friedl has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.45 Units / 31% ROI)