Winning Probability and Team Stats for Nationals vs Phillies Match - Tuesday March 31, 2026

+160O/U: 9.5
(-110/-110)-185

Joey Wiemer – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
Joey Wiemer is projected to bat 8th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
James Wood has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the league’s 9th-shallowest LF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Andrew Painter – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
With 8 hitters of the opposite hand in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Andrew Painter will not have the upper hand while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.
Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+850/-2300)
This season, there has been a decline in Brandon Marsh’s speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 28.27 ft/sec last year to 27.41 ft/sec currently.
Explain: Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can’t beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.
Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-185)
The Philadelphia Phillies projected lineup ranks as the 3rd-best on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill.
Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 126 games (+18.86 Units / 13% ROI)
Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+160)
The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 away games (+9.90 Units / 15% ROI)
Alec Bohm – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+155/-205)
Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+10.80 Units / 32% ROI)

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