Winning Probability and Team Stats for Athletics vs Twins Match – Friday July 24, 2026

Athletics

@

Minnesota Twins

Athletics Insights

• Jacob Lopez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Among all SPs, Jacob Lopez’s fastball velocity of 89.9 mph ranks in the 5th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Athletics – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Athletics’ bullpen projects as the 5th-worst among all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Zebby Matthews – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-160/+125)
  Tallying 17.5 outs per GS this year on average, Zebby Matthews ranks in the 87th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Josh Bell – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Over the past 14 days, Josh Bell’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.9% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Victor Caratini – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Victor Caratini hits many of his flyballs to center field (42.8% — 92nd percentile) and will be challenged by the game’s 10th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 50 games (+5.70 Units / 10% ROI)
• Athletics – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 20 games (+11.90 Units / 47% ROI)
• Jeff McNeil – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+800/-2000)
  Jeff McNeil has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+9.00 Units / 225% ROI)