Read the Game Recap for Mariners vs Rangers - July 24th, 2026

-115O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-105

Bryce Miller – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Bryce Miller has used his off-speed and breaking pitches 7.2% more often this season (49.7%) than he did last season (42.5%).
Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
Dominic Canzone – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
Dominic Canzone is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
Seattle Mariners batters collectively grade out 9th- in baseball for power this year when assessing with their 92.6-mph exit velocity on flyballs.
Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
MacKenzie Gore’s 2243-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 25th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Elias Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
Elias Diaz’s average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 85.9-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 83.6-mph in the past week.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
Brandon Nimmo hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 85th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 6th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 22 games at home (+9.30 Units / 38% ROI)
Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 23 away games (+6.60 Units / 26% ROI)
Wyatt Langford – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+420/-660)
Wyatt Langford has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games at home (+12.10 Units / 121% ROI)

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