Track the Live Score for Brewers vs Braves – 8/08/2024

Milwaukee Brewers

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Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves will host the Milwaukee Brewers on August 8, 2024, in a key National League matchup at Truist Park. Both teams are in the midst of a competitive stretch, with the Braves sitting at 60-53 and the Brewers slightly ahead at 64-49. The Braves have been playing above average this season, while the Brewers are enjoying a good campaign. In their last game, the Braves fell to the Brewers, which adds more intensity to this contest as they seek to even the series.

Charlie Morton is projected to take the mound for the Braves, having started 20 games this season with a 6-6 record and a solid ERA of 3.94. However, his advanced-stat Power Rankings position him as the 128th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he’s below average overall. Morton’s projections for today suggest he will pitch around 5.4 innings, but he could struggle with allowing 3.0 earned runs and 5.5 hits on average, which is concerning.

On the other side, Frankie Montas, the Brewers’ starter, has had a tough year with a 5-8 record and an ERA of 5.03. While he projects to pitch 5.3 innings, his numbers indicate he might allow 3.3 earned runs and 5.9 hits, which could be problematic against a team like the Braves.

Offensively, the Braves rank 15th overall and are particularly strong in home runs, ranking 10th in that category, while the Brewers boast the 8th best offense in MLB and are 5th in batting average. This matchup features a high Game Total of 9.0 runs, suggesting a potentially high-scoring affair. With the Braves being favored with a moneyline of -140 and an implied team total of 4.81 runs, they will look to capitalize on their home advantage and close the gap against the Brewers in this pivotal game.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (+115)
  The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-best out of all the teams playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Sal Frelick – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Sal Frelick has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 83.8-mph dropping to 78.9-mph over the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  William Contreras hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 91st percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Charlie Morton – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Compared to the average starter, Charlie Morton has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an additional 5.8 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Adam Duvall – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Milwaukee’s #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Adam Duvall, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Compared to their .335 overall projected rate, the .321 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Atlanta Braves projected lineup today suggests this version of the lineup a fair amount weaker than usual.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 65 of their last 102 games (+28.45 Units / 25% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 59 of their last 107 games (+13.45 Units / 12% ROI)
• Joseph Ortiz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Joseph Ortiz has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 away games (+9.65 Units / 37% ROI)