Game Forecast: Yankees vs Mariners Match Preview - 3/31/26

-120O/U: 7
(-110/-110)+100

Max Fried – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
Max Fried has been given more leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, recording 7.5 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.
Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
In notching a .423 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season, Aaron Judge is ranked in the 100th percentile for hitting ability.
Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
The New York Yankees have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Ryan McMahon, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Giancarlo Stanton).
Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Logan Gilbert – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
The New York Yankees have 6 batters in the projected batting order that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Logan Gilbert in today’s game.
Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
Brendan Donovan – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+125)
Brendan Donovan is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
The Seattle Mariners bullpen projects as the 9th-best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 86 of their last 153 games (+17.10 Units / 10% ROI)
New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 43 of their last 71 games (+17.25 Units / 15% ROI)
Aaron Judge – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.60 Units / 27% ROI)

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