Team Stats and Insights for Rockies vs D-Backs Match Preview - 5/21/2026

+180O/U: 9.5
(-110/-110)-210

Zach Agnos – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Zach Agnos in the 15th percentile when estimating his strikeout skill.
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
Willi Castro – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-220/+165)
Willi Castro has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (53% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies’ bullpen ranks as the worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-210)
The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-strongest among every team in action today.
Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
Adrian Del Castillo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Adrian Del Castillo can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
Today, Gabriel Moreno is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 38.9% rate (98th percentile).
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+110)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 30 games at home (+14.60 Units / 40% ROI)
Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+5.30 Units / 23% ROI)
Ketel Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+400/-620)
Ketel Marte has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+7.10 Units / 177% ROI)

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