
Detroit Tigers
@

Tampa Bay Rays
+120O/U: 8
(-115/-105)-140
(-115/-105)-140
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Jack Flaherty – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)Jack Flaherty didn’t have his best stuff when it came to striking hitters out in his previous start and notched 2 Ks.Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
- Zack Short – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.196) provides evidence that Zack Short has had some very good luck since the start of last season with his .279 actual wOBA.Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
- Detroit Tigers hitters collectively rank near the cellar of baseball this year ( 6th-worst) when assessing their 88.2-mph average exit velocity.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Steven Matz – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-175/+135)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Steven Matz to throw 82 pitches in today’s game (7th-least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
- Ryan Vilade – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)Ryan Vilade has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (96% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.3%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (-140)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 19 games at home (+11.35 Units / 43% ROI)
- Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.25 Units / 31% ROI)
- Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+145/-190)Spencer Torkelson has hit the Walks Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+6.80 Units / 24% ROI)
