Stream the Reds vs Mets Game Live - 5/27/2026

+100O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-120

Andrew Abbott – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
Given the 1.46 deviation between Andrew Abbott’s 6.04 K/9 and his 7.50 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the league this year when it comes to strikeouts and ought to positively regress going forward.
Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
JJ Bleday – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
Despite posting a .411 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes JJ Bleday has had positive variance on his side given the .079 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .332.
Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
Nathaniel Lowe has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
Jonah Tong has recorded a .398 BABIP since the start of last season, a sign that he has been one of the unluckiest mound aces in the league on balls in play with improved performance likely coming.
Explain: Casual fans and the mainstream media don’t realize that pitchers have limited control over the hits they allow, which can drastically skew their results and the way the market treats them.
Brett Baty – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
Brett Baty has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (51% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in today’s game.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
The New York Mets have been the unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in future games
Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.25 Units / 28% ROI)
Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 45 games (+15.25 Units / 31% ROI)
Sal Stewart – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+160/-205)
Sal Stewart has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.00 Units / 22% ROI)

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