Stream the Padres vs Braves Game Live – 7/20/2026

San Diego Padres

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Atlanta Braves

San Diego Padres Insights

• JP Sears – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-140/+110)
  Compared to the average hurler, JP Sears has been granted a below-average leash this year, throwing an -7.8 fewer adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)
  Xander Bogaerts is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Drake Baldwin – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Drake Baldwin has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.9-mph average to last season’s 94.2-mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Atlanta has been the #27 club in baseball when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (42.3% rate this year).
  Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Betting Trends

• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.80 Units / 50% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 30 games (+2.95 Units / 8% ROI)
• Drake Baldwin – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+160/-205)
  Drake Baldwin has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 100% ROI)