Check the Injuries Update for Mets vs Brewers - 7/20/2026

+175O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-205

Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+110/-140)
Freddy Peralta has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 4.6 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average pitcher.
Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Juan Soto – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
Juan Soto may have the upper hand against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the Milwaukee Brewers only has 1 same-handed RP.
Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
New York Mets bats as a unit have been one of the best in baseball this year (6th-) when assessing their 89.3-mph average exit velocity.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jacob Misiorowski – Over/Under 8.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
The New York Mets have 6 hitters in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage over Jacob Misiorowski in today’s game.
Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
Garrett Mitchell – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
Despite posting a .359 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Garrett Mitchell has been lucky given the .041 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .318.
Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
Jackson Chourio hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+100/-130)
The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 50 games (+9.10 Units / 15% ROI)
New York Mets – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 35 games (+11.35 Units / 27% ROI)
Christian Yelich – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 games (+7.00 Units / 24% ROI)

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