See the Updated Player Rankings for Rays vs Blue Jays – May 11, 2026

Tampa Bay Rays

@

Toronto Blue Jays

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Drew Rasmussen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Drew Rasmussen’s fastball spin rate of 2523 rpm is in the 93rd percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Taylor Walls – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Taylor Walls’s average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 86.4-mph EV last season has lowered to 81-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Yandy Diaz hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 86th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 10th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-145/+115)
  Kevin Gausman has tallied 17.5 outs per GS this year, checking in at the 83rd percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Extreme groundball batters like Daulton Varsho tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Toronto Blue Jays (19.9 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy group of batters of all teams today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games (+5.90 Units / 20% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (+100)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 24 games (+12.40 Units / 43% ROI)
• George Springer – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+110/-145)
  George Springer has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.90 Units / 33% ROI)