See Picks and Betting Line for Yankees vs Orioles - Monday, May 11, 2026

-150O/U: 9
(-110/-110)+130

Ryan Weathers – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Ryan Weathers will ring up an average of 5.8 strikeouts in this game.
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
Ben Rice – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Ben Rice’s true offensive ability to be a .362, indicating that he has been very fortunate this year given the .087 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .449 wOBA.
Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
Ryan Weathers – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Austin Wells (the Yankees’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) profiles as an elite pitch framer.
Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Brandon Young – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
Brandon Young’s higher usage percentage of his fastball this season (53.6 vs. 43.8% last year) is not ideal consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
Coby Mayo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Coby Mayo’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6% down to 0%.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Baltimore Orioles hitters as a group have been among the best in MLB this year (5th-) in regard to their 89.8-mph average exit velocity.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 35 games at home (+4.50 Units / 10% ROI)
New York Yankees – Run Line -1.5 (+105)
The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 15 of their last 25 games (+7.05 Units / 26% ROI)
Jazz Chisholm – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+115/-150)
Jazz Chisholm has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+6.40 Units / 16% ROI)

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