
Chicago Cubs
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Milwaukee Brewers
+135O/U: 7.5
(-115/-105)-155
(-115/-105)-155
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (+135)Out of every team on the slate today, the strongest infield defense is that of the Chicago Cubs.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Ian Happ – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)Ian Happ is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 97% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (+135)The Chicago Cubs projected batting order projects as the 2nd-strongest on the slate in terms of overall batting ability.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-180)Kyle Harrison is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #10 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this matchup.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)William Contreras has seen a big increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 100.5-mph average in the last week’s worth of games to his seasonal 90.5-mph figure.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Milwaukee Brewers – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Milwaukee Brewers’ bullpen projects as the 2nd-best out of all teams in the majors.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-120)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 24 games at home (+7.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+135)The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 games (+6.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+530/-950)Dansby Swanson has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+12.40 Units / 155% ROI)
