Winning Probability and Team Stats for Marlins vs Cardinals Match - Saturday June 27, 2026

+120O/U: 8.5
(-115/-105)-140

Ryan Gusto – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-140/+110)
Compared to the average pitcher, Ryan Gusto has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an -9.4 fewer adjusted pitches each start.
Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
Griffin Conine – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
Griffin Conine has big-time HR ability (79th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (32.5% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Andre Pallante has a pitch-to-contact profile (5th percentile K%) — great news for Conine.
Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
Owen Caissie – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
Owen Caissie hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Andre Pallante – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
Andre Pallante’s higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this season (50.7% vs. 42.8% last year) figures to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
Lars Nootbaar has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.9-mph average to last year’s 91.3-mph EV.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
The St. Louis Cardinals (20 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 3rd-least strikeout-prone group of hitters of the day.
Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)
The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 50 games (+6.30 Units / 11% ROI)
Miami Marlins – Run Line +1.5 (-175)
The Miami Marlins have hit the Run Line in 17 of their last 22 games (+15.00 Units / 50% ROI)
Joe Mack – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+800/-1900)
Joe Mack has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 away games (+19.80 Units / 283% ROI)

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