
San Francisco Giants
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Milwaukee Brewers
+220O/U: 7
(-110/-110)-260
(-110/-110)-260
San Francisco Giants Insights
- San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+175)Trevor McDonald is an extreme groundball pitcher (51.6% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in American Family Field — the #3 HR venue among all stadiums — today.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
- Daniel Susac – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Daniel Susac has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 6.8% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last week.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Matt Chapman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Matt Chapman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Kyle Harrison – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)With 7 batters who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Kyle Harrison faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Garrett Mitchell – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Garrett Mitchell has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.7-mph to 99.2-mph in the last week’s worth of games.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Ranking least steep in baseball this year, Milwaukee Brewers hitters jointly have posted a 8.9° launch angle (a reliable stat to assess the ability to lift the ball for power).Explain: A low launch angle generally means the hitter struggles to lift the ball into the air, which is a key component for power and home runs.
Betting Trends
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-260)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 24 games (+11.05 Units / 34% ROI)
- San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+125/-165)The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.75 Units / 56% ROI)
- Rafael Devers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Rafael Devers has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 away games (+7.00 Units / 23% ROI)
