Review the Dodgers vs Brewers Match Preview and Winning Probability - May 24th, 2026

-150O/U: 8
(-110/-110)+125

Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-165/+125)
Compared to the average starting pitcher, Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an additional 6.2 adjusted pitches each start.
Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
Kyle Tucker has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 5.8% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the last two weeks.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Mookie Betts – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
Mookie Betts hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+135)
Considering the 1.38 deviation between Brandon Sproat’s 5.75 ERA and his 4.37 estimated true talent ERA (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the majors this year and ought to perform better going forward.
Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
Garrett Mitchell – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
Garrett Mitchell has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.4-mph average in the last two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 92.5-mph average.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Rating least steep in MLB this year, Milwaukee Brewers hitters jointly have recorded a 8.8° launch angle (an advanced stat to assess the ability to lift the ball for power).
Explain: A low launch angle generally means the hitter struggles to lift the ball into the air, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Milwaukee Brewers – Run Line +1.5 (-135)
The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+8.45 Units / 23% ROI)
Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-150)
The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 35 away games (+4.55 Units / 8% ROI)
Teoscar Hernandez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.85 Units / 50% ROI)

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