Review Player Predictions Overview for Pirates vs Giants – Saturday May 9, 2026

Pittsburgh Pirates

@

San Francisco Giants

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Braxton Ashcraft – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Braxton Ashcraft has recorded 17.9 outs per GS this year, placing in the 90th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Typically, batters like Oneil Cruz who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Landen Roupp.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates (24.1% K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 3rd-most strikeout-heavy group of batters of all teams today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Landen Roupp – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Landen Roupp’s curveball usage has fallen by 6.9% from last season to this one (35.7% to 28.8%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Willy Adames – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Willy Adames has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (73% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants’ bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+4.10 Units / 21% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line -1.5 (+150)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 25 of their last 45 games (+5.05 Units / 9% ROI)
• Willy Adames – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+165/-220)
  Willy Adames has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.10 Units / 21% ROI)