Mets vs D-Backs Picks and Odds – May 09, 2026

New York Mets

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Arizona Diamondbacks

New York Mets Insights

• Clay Holmes – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Clay Holmes’s sinker percentage has spiked by 9.1% from last year to this one (40.4% to 49.5%) .
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  In today’s matchup, Mark Vientos is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.6% rate (99th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  Merrill Kelly was firing on all cylinders in his last outing and conceded 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Gabriel Moreno is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Arizona Diamondbacks with a 19.4% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 25 games at home (+14.40 Units / 48% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.75 Units / 49% ROI)
• Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+11.00 Units / 43% ROI)