Mets vs D-Backs Picks and Odds - May 09, 2026

-120O/U: 9
(+100/-120)+100

Clay Holmes – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
Clay Holmes’s sinker percentage has spiked by 9.1% from last year to this one (40.4% to 49.5%) .
Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
Luis Torrens – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.302) suggests that Luis Torrens has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season with his .220 actual batting average.
Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
Mark Vientos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
In today’s matchup, Mark Vientos is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.5% rate (99th percentile).
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
Merrill Kelly was firing on all cylinders in his last outing and conceded 2 ER.
Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
Gabriel Moreno is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Arizona Diamondbacks with a 19.2% underlying K%.
Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 25 games at home (+14.40 Units / 48% ROI)
New York Mets – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.75 Units / 49% ROI)
Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-240/+180)
Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+11.00 Units / 43% ROI)

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