Review Mets vs Blue Jays Bets and Betting Trends – Wednesday, July 1, 2026

New York Mets

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Toronto Blue Jays

New York Mets Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Freddy Peralta’s 2416-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 76th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Mark Vientos is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 66% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The New York Mets have been the unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better going forward
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Braydon Fisher – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Braydon Fisher to have a pitch count in this game, projecting a maximum of 61 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• George Springer – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  George Springer’s average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 88.1-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 80.8-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen ranks as the 4th-best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 35 games (+5.90 Units / 14% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 40 away games (+15.40 Units / 34% ROI)
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (-140/+110)
  Juan Soto has hit the Walks Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.30 Units / 24% ROI)