Red Sox vs Orioles Expert Picks and Betting Tips - Saturday September 5, 2026

-130O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)+110

Sonny Gray – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-140/+110)
Recording 17.2 outs per GS this year on average, Sonny Gray checks in at the 83rd percentile.
Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
Roman Anthony – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
When it comes to his home runs, Roman Anthony has been unlucky since the start of last season. His 13.3 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been a good deal lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 27.7.
Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
Sonny Gray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
Connor Wong, the Red Sox’s expected catcher today, grades out as a horrible pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Chris Bassitt – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
Chris Bassitt’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this year (54.7% vs. 49.2% last year) should work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
Dylan Beavers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)
Dylan Beavers is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 51% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Baltimore Orioles bats as a group rank among the best in the league this year () when assessing their 89.8-mph average exit velocity.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+7.05 Units / 40% ROI)
Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.05 Units / 29% ROI)
Colton Cowser – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
Colton Cowser has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+8.10 Units / 30% ROI)

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