Official Lineup for Yankees vs Padres - 9/05/2026

-110O/U: 7.5
(-120/+100)-110

Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
Carlos Rodon has put up a 12.5% Swinging Strike percentage this year, placing in the 85th percentile.
Explain: Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.
Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
Cody Bellinger has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 6.1% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past week’s worth of games.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Compared to their .327 overall projected rate, the .316 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the New York Yankees projected offense in today’s game suggests this version of the lineup considerably a bit watered down.
Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Robbie Ray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
Given that flyball pitchers hold a significant advantage over flyball hitters, Robbie Ray and his 40.6% underlying FB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a good position today going up against 2 opposing FB hitters.
Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
Fernando Tatis Jr. has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.8-mph to 94.9-mph in the last 14 days.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
The San Diego Padres bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-110)
The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 21 games at home (+9.75 Units / 35% ROI)
New York Yankees – Run Line -1.5 (+160)
The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 15 of their last 24 games (+10.25 Units / 37% ROI)

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