Rays vs Pirates Expert Picks and Betting Guide – 4/17/2026

Tampa Bay Rays

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Pittsburgh Pirates

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tampa Bay Rays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)
  Nick Martinez projects to allow an average of 3.12 earned runs in this game, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Jonathan Aranda – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Jonathan Aranda has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 10.2% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Junior Caminero – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Junior Caminero pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.4% — 95th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 10th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Bubba Chandler – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  With 6 bats of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Bubba Chandler will have a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Ryan O’Hearn – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Ryan O’Hearn may have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Tampa Bay Rays has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the 10th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse going forward
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.