Head-to-Head Preview: Royals vs Yankees Matchup 4/17/26

+150O/U: 8
(-105/-115)-175

Michael Wacha – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Michael Wacha has used his non-fastballs 5.6% less often this season (54.8%) than he did last year (60.4%).
Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
Michael Massey – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
New York’s 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Michael Massey, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Michael Massey – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
Michael Massey pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.1% — 94th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cam Schlittler – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
Out of all starting pitchers, Cameron Schlittler’s fastball velocity of 96.7 mph grades out in the 94th percentile this year.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Amed Rosario – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
Amed Rosario has made substantial gains with his Barrel%, upping his 6% rate last season to 16% this season.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
New York Yankees – Moneyline (-175)
The New York Yankees projected lineup grades out as the 2nd-strongest of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting skill.
Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-190)
The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 50 games at home (+5.45 Units / 6% ROI)
Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.15 Units / 34% ROI)
Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+125/-165)
Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+17.10 Units / 56% ROI)

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