
New York Yankees
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Los Angeles Angels
-185O/U: 7.5
(-115/-105)+160
(-115/-105)+160
New York Yankees Insights
- Gerrit Cole – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)Gerrit Cole’s high usage rate of his fastball (52.9% this year) is likely harming his results, considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
- George Lombard Jr. – Over/Under HitsGeorge Lombard has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (74% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- New York Yankees – 2H MoneylineThe New York Yankees bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Los Angeles Angels – Moneyline (+160)The Los Angeles Angels infield defense grades out as the worst out of every team playing today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Tyler Heineman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)Tyler Heineman’s average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 84.2-mph EV last season has decreased to 81.3-mph.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Zach Neto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)Zach Neto pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.8% — 95th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 11th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+9.25 Units / 36% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 30 away games (+9.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- Trent Grisham – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-105/-125)Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 15 away games (+7.15 Units / 41% ROI)
