
Milwaukee Brewers
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Chicago Cubs
+105O/U: 10
(-110/-110)-125
(-110/-110)-125
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Robert Gasser – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)The Chicago Cubs have 7 hitters in the projected lineup that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Robert Gasser in this matchup, which is especially precarious given his large platoon split.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Cooper Pratt – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)Cooper Pratt’s average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 85.9-mph seasonal figure has fallen off to 80.9-mph over the past 14 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (+105)The 5th-best projected lineup of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the Milwaukee Brewers.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-125)Among every team today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the the Chicago Cubs.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Tyrone Taylor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)Typically, hitters like Tyrone Taylor who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Robert Gasser.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Chicago Cubs – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen profiles as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in the game.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Chicago Cubs – Run Line -1.5 (+155)The Chicago Cubs have hit the Run Line in 21 of their last 35 games (+10.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 23 games (+7.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- Brice Turang – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)Brice Turang has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+8.65 Units / 21% ROI)
