Phillies vs Blue Jays Picks and Betting Odds – 6/9/2026

Philadelphia Phillies

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Toronto Blue Jays

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+115/-145)
  Zack Wheeler has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording 3.3 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Bryce Harper has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Toronto Blue Jays only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen projects as the 5th-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Dylan Cease – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  Dylan Cease’s slider percentage has dropped by 9.6% from last year to this one (44.4% to 34.8%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Brandon Valenzuela – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Brandon Valenzuela has been lucky this year, posting a .354 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .291 — a .063 deviation.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 91st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line +1.5 (-185)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 14 of their last 24 games (+5.50 Units / 17% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 15 away games (+8.70 Units / 52% ROI)
• Kazuma Okamoto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)
  Kazuma Okamoto has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+6.75 Units / 27% ROI)