Odds and Betting Trends for Cubs vs Phillies - 4/14/26

+120O/U: 9.5
(-110/-110)-140

Carson Kelly – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
Carson Kelly has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (50% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen grades out as the 7th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Aaron Nola – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
Aaron Nola’s 91.2-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season grades out in the 21st percentile among all starting pitchers.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
J.T. Realmuto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
J.T. Realmuto has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.5-mph to 97-mph in the last 7 days.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
Brandon Marsh has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-110)
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+6.00 Units / 17% ROI)
Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 50 away games (+6.25 Units / 11% ROI)
Alec Bohm – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-130/+100)
Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+6.65 Units / 62% ROI)

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