
Kansas City Royals
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Chicago White Sox
+110O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-130
(-110/-110)-130
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Kansas City Royals – Moneyline (+110)The Kansas City Royals infield defense projects as the 2nd-strongest among all the teams on the slate today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Jac Caglianone – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Jac Caglianone has seen a big increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 98-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 93.9-mph average.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Michael Massey – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)Michael Massey pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.2% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest RF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Davis Martin – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-155/+120)Davis Martin has recorded 17.5 outs per game per started this year, checking in at the 85th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Braden Montgomery – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)Braden Montgomery is an extreme groundball hitter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Kansas City (#2-best of the day).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- The underlying talent of the Chicago White Sox projected lineup today (.309 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be significantly worse than their .322 wOBA this year.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Betting Trends
- Chicago White Sox – Moneyline (-130)The Chicago White Sox have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 40 games at home (+16.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 25 away games (+6.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- Isaac Collins – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+165/-220)Isaac Collins has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+10.90 Units / 22% ROI)
