Learn About Player Prop Odds Breakdown for Giants vs D-Backs - Wednesday May 20, 2026

-110O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-110

Tyler Mahle – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
Tyler Mahle’s 91.7-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 16th percentile among all starting pitchers.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Casey Schmitt – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Casey Schmitt’s true offensive talent to be a .316, implying that he has been lucky this year given the .050 difference between that figure and his actual .366 wOBA.
Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants’ bullpen profiles as the 8th-worst among all the teams in MLB.
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Merrill Kelly – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-160/+125)
Throwing 100.3 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Merrill Kelly checks in at the 99th percentile.
Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Adrian Del Castillo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
Adrian Del Castillo has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 8.5% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the past 7 days.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Ketel Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
Ketel Marte pulls a lot of his flyballs (38% — 93rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 35 games (+11.80 Units / 28% ROI)
San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 away games (+8.55 Units / 33% ROI)
Drew Gilbert – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+115/-150)
Drew Gilbert has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 63% ROI)

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