
Texas Rangers
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Colorado Rockies
-125O/U: 10
(-110/-110)+105
(-110/-110)+105
Texas Rangers Insights
- Jack Leiter – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)Jack Leiter’s sinker usage has decreased by 5.3% from last year to this one (12.5% to 7.2%) .Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.
- Jake Burger – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+170/-225)Jake Burger has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (71% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Texas Rangers – 2H MoneylineThe Texas Rangers bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Colorado Rockies Insights
- Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+105)Among all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Colorado Rockies.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Tyler Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Tyler Freeman’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 88.5-mph mark last year has decreased to 85.3-mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Brett Sullivan – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)When estimating his overall offensive skill, Brett Sullivan ranks in the 2nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 16 games at home (+2.40 Units / 14% ROI)
- Texas Rangers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 25 games (+4.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- T.J. Rumfield – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+750/-1600)T.J. Rumfield has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 9 games at home (+7.10 Units / 79% ROI)
