
Texas Rangers
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Colorado Rockies
-135O/U: 10
(-110/-110)+115
(-110/-110)+115
Texas Rangers Insights
- Jack Leiter – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)Jack Leiter’s sinker usage has decreased by 5.3% from last year to this one (12.5% to 7.2%) .Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.
- Jake Burger – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+160/-205)Jake Burger has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (73% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Texas Rangers – 2H MoneylineThe Texas Rangers bullpen grades out as the worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Colorado Rockies Insights
- Kyle Freeland – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)Kyle Freeland struggled when it came to striking hitters out in his previous game started and put up 2 Ks.Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
- Willi Castro – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)Willi Castro has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 89-mph average to last season’s 87-mph figure.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Brett Sullivan – Over/Under Total BasesWhen estimating his overall offensive skill, Brett Sullivan ranks in the 2nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 16 games at home (+2.40 Units / 14% ROI)
- Texas Rangers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 25 games (+4.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- Josh Jung – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+100/-130)Josh Jung has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+7.20 Units / 73% ROI)
