How to Watch the Cubs vs Mariners Game - Saturday August 22, 2026

+100O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-120

Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
David Peterson is an extreme groundball pitcher (50% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in T-Mobile Park — the #8 HR venue in the league — in today’s game.
Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
Despite posting a .393 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Pete Crow-Armstrong has experienced some positive variance given the .055 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .338.
Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
The underlying talent of the Chicago Cubs projected offense today (.318 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably weaker than their .329 wOBA this year.
Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Kade Anderson – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
When assessing his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Kade Anderson in the 82nd percentile among all starting pitchers in the game.
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)
Cal Raleigh has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (76% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order today.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
The Seattle Mariners bullpen projects as the 7th-best in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 50 games (+6.25 Units / 11% ROI)
Chicago Cubs – Run Line +1.5 (-200)
The Chicago Cubs have hit the Run Line in 25 of their last 40 away games (+12.50 Units / 26% ROI)
Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+150/-195)
Cal Raleigh has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+13.55 Units / 31% ROI)

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