Pirates vs Dodgers Picks and Betting Tips – August 22nd, 2026

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Los Angeles Dodgers

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Jared Jones – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Jared Jones’s 97.6-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 99th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jake Mangum – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Jake Mangum’s average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 87.4-mph EV last season has fallen to 85.3-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Oneil Cruz hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 86th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 9th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-155)
  Tarik Skubal has tallied 17.9 outs per game per started this year, grading out in the 92nd percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-265)
  The best projected offense of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games (+6.00 Units / 20% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+130/-170)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 25 away games (+5.90 Units / 19% ROI)
• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-240/+180)
  Shohei Ohtani has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+8.90 Units / 35% ROI)