Pirates vs Dodgers Picks and Betting Tips – August 22nd, 2026

Pittsburgh Pirates

@

Los Angeles Dodgers

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Jared Jones – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Jared Jones’s 97.6-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 99th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jake Mangum – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Jake Mangum’s average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 87.4-mph EV last season has fallen to 85.3-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  In today’s game, Brandon Lowe is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 8th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 38.9% rate (96th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+105/-135)
  Tarik Skubal has tallied 17.9 outs per game per started this year, grading out in the 92nd percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-255)
  The best projected offense of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games (+6.00 Units / 20% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 25 away games (+5.90 Units / 19% ROI)
• Jared Triolo – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+105/-135)
  Jared Triolo has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+6.65 Units / 19% ROI)