
San Francisco Giants
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Colorado Rockies
-125O/U: 11
(-105/-115)+105
(-105/-115)+105
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Adrian Houser – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)Compared to the average starting pitcher, Adrian Houser has been given a below-average leash this year, tallying an -7.8 fewer adjusted pitches each start.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- The San Francisco Giants have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Willy Adames, Bryce Eldridge, Daniel Susac).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Colorado Rockies Insights
- Ryan Feltner – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)Ryan Feltner has experienced some negative variance in regards to his strikeouts since the start of last season, compiling a 7.51 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 8.07 — a 0.56 K/9 discrepancy.Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
- Edouard Julien – Over/Under HitsEdouard Julien is penciled in 8th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Colorado Rockies – 2H MoneylineThe Colorado Rockies bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team TotalThe Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games at home (+2.15 Units / 14% ROI)
- San Francisco Giants – Over/Under Team TotalThe San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 25 away games (+8.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- Ezequiel Tovar – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+115/-150)Ezequiel Tovar has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+14.10 Units / 34% ROI)
