Get Expert Player Predictions for Yankees vs Tigers – August 16, 2024

New York Yankees

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Detroit Tigers

As the Detroit Tigers prepare to host the New York Yankees on August 16, 2024, they find themselves in a challenging position. Currently sitting at 59-63, the Tigers are struggling this season and rank 26th in MLB offense, while the Yankees boast an impressive 72-50 record, placing them among the league’s elite. The Yankees, who recently triumphed over the White Sox 10-2, will look to maintain their momentum against a struggling Tigers squad.

In this American League matchup, Detroit will send Beau Brieske to the mound. Brieske’s recent performance has been less than stellar, as he projects to pitch only 1.5 innings while allowing 0.8 earned runs on average. His previous outing on August 14 was abbreviated, lasting just one inning, yet he managed to hold the opposition scoreless. However, his season-long struggles indicate that he may have a tough time against a potent Yankees lineup.

On the other side, Gerrit Cole is slated to start for New York. Despite a mixed season with a 3-2 record and a 4.70 ERA, Cole ranks 29th among starting pitchers in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. He projects to pitch nearly six innings with an average of 2.2 earned runs allowed and a strong 7.3 strikeouts, making him a significant threat on the mound.

The projections favor the Yankees, suggesting they will score around 5.09 runs, while the Tigers are expected to struggle to reach 3.71 runs. With a low implied team total of 3.58 runs for Detroit, this matchup heavily favors New York, especially considering their offensive prowess, which ranks 1st in MLB. As the Tigers look to upset the odds, they must find a way to capitalize on any weaknesses from the Yankees’ pitching staff.

New York Yankees Insights

• Gerrit Cole – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  Out of all starters, Gerrit Cole’s fastball velocity of 95.4 mph ranks in the 92nd percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-265/+200)
  Anthony Volpe is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Gerrit Cole – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  Jose Trevino, the Yankees’s expected catcher in today’s game, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Beau Brieske will “start” for Detroit Tigers in today’s game but will server as an opener and may not remain in the game more than a couple innings.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  The New York Yankees have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Zach McKinstry stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Detroit Tigers hitters jointly rank near the cellar of the majors this year ( 8th-worst) as far as their 88.4-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Run Line +1.5 (+100)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 27 of their last 35 games (+19.50 Units / 40% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 62 games (+21.70 Units / 32% ROI)
• Kerry Carpenter – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+115/-150)
  Kerry Carpenter has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.10 Units / 27% ROI)