New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox
(-110/-110)+100
As the Boston Red Sox host the New York Yankees on July 26, 2024, at Fenway Park, fans can expect a clash between two American League East rivals in the midst of compelling seasons. The Red Sox, with a record of 54-47, are enjoying an above-average season, while the Yankees, boasting a 60-44 record, are having a great year. This game marks the first in the series between these storied franchises, adding an extra layer of anticipation.
On the mound, Boston will start right-hander Brayan Bello, who has had a mixed season. Bello holds a 10-5 record over 18 starts but has struggled with a 5.27 ERA. However, his 3.60 xFIP suggests he has been unlucky and could see better results moving forward. Bello’s high ground-ball rate (52%) might give him an edge against the Yankees’ powerful lineup, which ranks 2nd in MLB with 149 home runs.
The Yankees counter with left-handed pitcher Nestor Cortes, who has been more consistent. Cortes has a 4-9 record over 21 starts and a solid 3.99 ERA. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Cortes is the 47th-best starting pitcher, compared to Bello’s 71st ranking. Cortes is projected to allow 2.7 earned runs and strike out 5.7 batters over 5.4 innings, while Bello is expected to give up 3.0 earned runs and strike out 4.5 batters over 5.2 innings.
Offensively, both teams bring firepower. The Yankees, ranked 2nd in overall offensive prowess and 2nd in home runs, will rely heavily on their power. However, their 12th-ranked team batting average and 29th-ranked stolen bases could pose limitations. The Red Sox, ranked 4th in overall offense, 4th in batting average, and 7th in home runs, also showcase a balanced attack. Jarren Duran, Boston’s hottest hitter over the last week, brings a .423 batting average and 1.538 OPS into the game, while Juan Soto leads the Yankees with a .520 batting average and 1.731 OPS over the same span.
Betting markets see this as a close contest, with the Yankees favored at -130 (implying a 54% win probability) and the Red Sox at +110 (implying a 46% win probability). Given these odds and the advanced metrics, the Yankees’ edge in starting pitching and overall offensive power could prove decisive. However, the Red Sox’s strong offense and Bello’s potential for better performance make this matchup highly intriguing.
New York Yankees Insights
- Nestor Cortes – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)Nestor Cortes’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this season (53.7% vs. 47.5% last season) ought to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Extreme groundball hitters like Aaron Judge generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Brayan Bello.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)Gleyber Torres has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Boston Red Sox Insights
- Brayan Bello – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)Brayan Bello’s 95.1-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 85th percentile out of all SPs.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Ceddanne Rafaela – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)Ceddanne Rafaela has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 7% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past 14 days.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- The Boston Red Sox have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Romy Gonzalez, Tyler O’Neill, Connor Wong).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games (+7.30 Units / 18% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 45 games (+13.15 Units / 26% ROI)
- Romy Gonzalez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)Romy Gonzalez has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+11.50 Units / 41% ROI)