White Sox vs Blue Jays Picks and Odds – July 18, 2026

Chicago White Sox

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Toronto Blue Jays

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Davis Martin – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (+100/-130)
  Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Davis Martin is projected to throw 83 pitches in today’s outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 14th-least on the slate today.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Tristan Peters – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Tristan Peters has been lucky this year, compiling a .362 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .298 — a .064 disparity.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• The Chicago White Sox (24.3% K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 3rd-most strikeout-prone group of hitters of all teams on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Shane Bieber – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Shane Bieber’s high utilization percentage of his secondary pitches (63.7% since the start of last season) should work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Alejandro Kirk – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Alejandro Kirk is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Toronto’s 87.8-mph average exit velocity this year is among the worst in the majors: #30 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.