Expert Picks and Betting Line for Twins vs Cubs – Saturday July 18th, 2026

Minnesota Twins

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Chicago Cubs

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Taj Bradley – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Taj Bradley’s curveball rate has fallen by 5.8% from last season to this one (14.8% to 9%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Luke Keaschall – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Luke Keaschall has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.2-mph dropping to 80-mph in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Minnesota Twins have been the 8th-luckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress going forward
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-155)
  Out of every team on the slate today, the best infield defense belongs to the Chicago Cubs.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Despite posting a .393 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Pete Crow-Armstrong has been lucky given the .043 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .350.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago Cubs bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Run Line -1.5 (+130)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Run Line in 15 of their last 25 games (+9.50 Units / 33% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 40 away games (+14.80 Units / 34% ROI)
• Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+12.05 Units / 29% ROI)