Game Location for Mariners vs Guardians - 6/28/26

+105O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-125

Seattle Mariners – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)
In his last start, Emerson Hancock was rolling and allowed 0 ER.
Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
Colt Emerson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
Colt Emerson has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.6-mph dropping to 83.8-mph over the past two weeks.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
Cal Raleigh pulls many of his flyballs (43.9% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Gavin Williams – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-160/+125)
Gavin Williams has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying 4.2 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.
Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Austin Hedges – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-105/-125)
In terms of his batting average, Austin Hedges has had some very good luck since the start of last season. His .203 figure has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .153.
Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
Gavin Williams – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Austin Hedges (the Guardians’s expected catcher in today’s game) grades out as an elite pitch framer.
Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.35 Units / 24% ROI)
Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in their last 7 away games (+7.20 Units / 92% ROI)
Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+180/-240)
Cal Raleigh has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+10.25 Units / 22% ROI)

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