Follow Live Updates on Brewers vs White Sox – Wednesday, April 30th, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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Chicago White Sox

On April 30, 2025, the Chicago White Sox will host the Milwaukee Brewers at Guaranteed Rate Field for the second game of their interleague series. The White Sox are struggling this season with a record of 7-22, while the Brewers, sitting at 15-15, are having an average year. In their previous matchup, the Brewers emerged victorious, further highlighting the White Sox’s ongoing difficulties.

The White Sox will send Shane Smith to the mound, who has been a bright spot despite the team’s overall struggles. Smith boasts an impressive ERA of 2.30 and has a Win/Loss record of 1-1 over five starts. However, his 4.35 xFIP indicates he might be due for regression, suggesting he has been somewhat fortunate. Smith is projected to allow 2.2 earned runs over five innings, which is solid, but his tendency to give up 4.5 hits and 1.7 walks per game raises concerns.

On the other side, the Brewers will counter with Tobias Myers, who has struggled in his limited time this season. Myers has an ERA of 4.50 and is ranked among the worst pitchers in MLB according to advanced stats. He projects to pitch 5.4 innings while allowing 2.5 earned runs, but with a concerning 7.49 xFIP, he too may be in for a rough outing.

Offensively, the White Sox rank 29th in MLB, struggling significantly at the plate with the league’s worst batting average. In contrast, the Brewers rank 16th, bolstered by a strong performance from their best hitter, who has been productive recently with a .364 batting average and a 1.098 OPS over the last week.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  Tobias Myers is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.1% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #9 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Extreme groundball batters like Christian Yelich usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Shane Smith.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 4th-least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Milwaukee Brewers with a 19.9% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-110/-120)
  Miguel Vargas is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago White Sox bullpen profiles as the 4th-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-150)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 6 games (+6.45 Units / 103% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 23 games (+8.60 Units / 30% ROI)
• Caleb Durbin – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+175/-230)
  Caleb Durbin has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 10 games (+7.00 Units / 70% ROI)