Odds and Betting Trends for Rangers vs Orioles – 3/31/26

Texas Rangers

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Baltimore Orioles

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jacob deGrom – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Jacob deGrom’s 96.8-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season is in the 94th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Corey Seager – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Corey Seager’s 93.2-mph average exit velocity is one of the best in baseball since the start of last season: 96th percentile.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Danny Jansen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Today, Danny Jansen is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 4th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 42.8% rate (100th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Zach Eflin – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Zach Eflin to be on a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 83 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Based on Statcast metrics, Pete Alonso grades out in the 98th percentile for power via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season at 37.800.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The Baltimore Orioles have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Blaze Alexander, Colton Cowser, Tyler O’Neill).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 84 of their last 138 games (+27.03 Units / 18% ROI)
• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 42 of their last 67 away games (+13.25 Units / 16% ROI)
• Danny Jansen – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+500/-850)
  Danny Jansen has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+15.00 Units / 214% ROI)