New York Mets
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Cincinnati Reds
-130O/U: 9.5
(-110/-110)+110
(-110/-110)+110
New York Mets Insights
- Kodai Senga – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)Kodai Senga’s fastball velocity has risen 1.4 mph this season (95.4 mph) over where it was last year (94 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
- MJ Melendez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)MJ Melendez is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Cincinnati (#2-worst of all teams on the slate).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- New York’s 89.6-mph average exit velocity this year is among the best in baseball: #4 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Cincinnati Reds Insights
- Brady Singer – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+105/-135)Generating 14.1 outs per outing this year on average, Brady Singer ranks in the 16th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)Eugenio Suarez is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 90% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)Nathaniel Lowe has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.