Find the Top Picks: Player Prop Picks for Blue Jays vs D-Backs - 4/17/26

+120O/U: 8.5
(-120/+100)-140

Eric Lauer – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
Eric Lauer’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.3 mph this season (89.6 mph) below where it was last year (90.9 mph).
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
Kazuma Okamoto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+110)
Kazuma Okamoto has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (71% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup in today’s game.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
The Toronto Blue Jays have done a good job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-contacted balls. Their 15.6° figure is among the highest in the majors since the start of last season (#4 overall).
Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Mike Soroka – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Michael Soroka will surrender an average of 4.4 singles in today’s outing.
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
Nolan Arenado’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 89.5-mph EV last year has dropped to 84.1-mph.
Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
Arizona’s 91.8-mph exit velocity on flyballs makes them the #26 club in MLB since the start of last season by this stat.
Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 40 games (+7.60 Units / 17% ROI)
Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.15 Units / 49% ROI)
Ildemaro Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1000/-3000)
Ildemaro Vargas has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 10 games (+10.50 Units / 105% ROI)

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