Find the Top Picks: Player Prop Picks for Blue Jays vs D-Backs – 4/17/26

Toronto Blue Jays

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Arizona Diamondbacks

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Eric Lauer – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Eric Lauer’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.3 mph this season (89.6 mph) below where it was last year (90.9 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Kazuma Okamoto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Kazuma Okamoto has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (71% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Toronto Blue Jays (19.6 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 4th-least strikeout-prone team of batters of all teams on the slate.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Nolan Arenado’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 89.5-mph EV last year has dropped to 84.7-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Arizona’s 91.8-mph exit velocity on flyballs makes them the #26 club in MLB since the start of last season by this stat.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 40 games (+7.60 Units / 17% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.15 Units / 49% ROI)
• Ildemaro Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Ildemaro Vargas has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 53% ROI)